Should You Worry About Market Volatility?
Should You Worry About Market Volatility?On August 5, 2024, the S&标普500指数较前一交易日收盘下跌3%，创下近两年来最大单日跌幅. 这延续了连续三周的下跌趋势.S. stock market — decline by 8.5%. 以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数跌幅更大，跌了3点.4% on August 5 and more than 13% over a four-week period.1
当天最后的损失并没有想象的那么糟糕. In the early morning, 芝加哥期权交易所（CBOE）波动率指数（通常被称为恐惧指标）达到历史第三高水平, 仅次于2008年全球在线赌场排名危机和2020年大流行崩溃. 然而，到当天结束时，它已经稳定到一个较正常的下跌日水平.2 And the market rebounded quickly. Two weeks later, the S&P 500 was just 1% off its all-time high, 而纳斯达克指数较峰值下跌了约4%，并实现了连续8天的上涨.3
Tuning out the noise
If you were paying close attention to the market on August 5, it would have been natural to be concerned. But as the subsequent bounceback illustrates, 面对暂时的波动而惊慌失措并改变投资策略是不明智的. 在市场下跌时卖出是锁定损失的最可靠方法, and you may miss out when the market rebounds.
大多数个人投资者最好是建立一个适合他们目标的多元化投资组合, time frame, and risk tolerance, 让投资组合跟随市场波动，追求长期增长. 在过去的30年里，美国经历了三次经济衰退&P 500 has returned an annual average of about 10.7%, assuming reinvestment of dividends.4 Of course, returns have varied widely from year to year, 但追求长期增长是投资者与投机者之间的核心区别. As Nobel laureate economist Paul Samuelson put it, “投资应该更像是看着油漆干或看着草长. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.”5
作为一名长期投资者并不意味着你应该完全无视市场走势或永远不改变你的投资. 重要的是要区分导致短期市场波动的事件和可能导致长期市场变化的基本商业和经济变化. 作为一个例子，看看最近的波动可能会有所帮助.
Jobs and high-risk trading
The market slide was caused in part by concerns that the U.S. 经济可能正在放缓，美联储对抗通胀的利率政策实现“软着陆”的希望可能比预期的要困难, possibly even ending in a recession. 8月2日周五发布的令人失望的就业报告加剧了这种担忧. The S&P 500 dropped 1.8% that day, and the NASDAQ dropped 2.4%，使其进入修正区域（从之前的高点下跌超过10%）。.6
While these were genuine concerns about the U.S. economy, 还有一个复杂的高风险交易策略网络正在瓦解，并推动了市场波动. 这些策略依赖于借贷或“杠杆化”，放大了潜在的收益，同时也放大了潜在的损失.
对冲基金和其他投机者以极低的利率借入了数十亿日元，以购买其他投资. 而许多中央银行已经提高了利率来对抗通货膨胀, 由于多年的经济停滞，日本的利率仍然接近于零. When the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate on July 31, the yen became more expensive, leaving speculators scurrying to disentangle their leveraged bets. The August 5 market mayhem began in Japan, where the benchmark Nikkei 225 Index plunged by more than 12%. 截至8月6日，做空日圆的押注已较峰值下跌逾80%.7–8
另一种高杠杆策略涉及购买大量科技股, betting big on the future of artificial intelligence, often while betting against small cap stocks, which have suffered from the high interest rate environment. Poor earnings reports by big tech companies, 再加上低利率的前景，这将有助于较小的公司, 使这些赌注破灭，迫使投机者试图减少损失.9
More to come?
尽管8月初的波动很大程度上是由高风险交易策略造成的, the jury is still out on the U.S. economy. Investors will closely watch upcoming economic data and events, 包括将于9月6日和11日发布的8月份就业和通胀报告, respectively, and the Fed meeting on September 17–18, 人们普遍预期哪些国家的央行行长会降低利率. 无论结果如何，11月的大选也可能搅动市场. However, as recent volatility illustrates, 通常明智的做法是不理会外界的噪音，坚持自己的投资策略.
All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal, 没有人能保证任何投资策略都会成功. 追求更高回报率的投资涉及更高程度的风险. The value of a foreign investment, measured in U.S. 由于货币汇率的不利变化，美元可能会下降. 国际投资会带来额外的风险，例如财务报告的差异以及特定国家特有的经济和政治风险，这些风险可能导致更大的股价波动. Diversification is a method used to help manage investment risk; it does not guarantee a profit or protect against investment loss. 非管理指数的表现并不代表任何特定投资的表现. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary.